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Overall situation of the global hydraulic industry
Hydraulic products are an important part of modern transmission and control systems. It directly affects the performance and development of electromechanical products and defense products, and is therefore valued by countries around the world. In recent years, due to technological innovation, electronic technology, computer technology, information and automatic control technology, as well as new processes and materials have been widely used, which has added vitality to hydraulic transmission technology. In terms of energy saving and environmental protection, such as improving efficiency, reducing noise, and preventing Much progress has been made in areas such as leakage and hybrid electromechanics (Hybrid), thus consolidating traditional markets and expanding their application areas.
In terms of market size, in 1998, the total sales of the global hydraulic market were 16.4 billion euros. In 2014, the total sales of the global hydraulic market were 26.4 billion euros, with an average growth rate of about 3.1%. In 2015, the total global hydraulic sales were 29.213 billion euros. Under the influence of the euro exchange rate and pricing caliber, global hydraulic sales were 28.2 billion euros. It is expected that the market growth of about 2% will be maintained in the next 2 to 3 years.
China's hydraulic industry market size
China's hydraulic parts industry started in the 1950s. It was mainly used in machine tools such as grinding machines and broaching machines, and then gradually expanded to the field of construction machinery and agricultural machinery. After more than 50 years of hard work, an industrial system with relatively complete categories, considerable production strength and technical level, and an initial economic scale has been formed. At present, it can basically meet the general needs of construction machinery, agricultural machinery, machine tools, metallurgy, mining, forestry, coal, shipbuilding, light industry, textiles, weapons, aerospace and other industries. With the rapid popularization of hydraulic transmission technology in China's industrial equipment, the gradual improvement of hydraulic industry technology, and the continuous development of specialized production models, downstream host companies gradually stripped the original hydraulic plants. This specialized division of labor has greatly accelerated the large-scale development of China's hydraulic industry. After entering the 21st century, China's hydraulic industry has a certain scale of production enterprises, a total of more than 1,000, of which about 100 major enterprises. The domestic market demand for hydraulic components and components has increased significantly, and the total output value of hydraulic systems has also increased from 26.9 billion yuan in 2009 to 50 billion yuan in 2015, with an average annual compound growth rate of 10.88%. In 2016, the total output value of the hydraulic and hydraulic industries was 53.2 billion yuan, of which the hydraulic industry was about 51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.46%. It is expected that the growth rate will remain at about 2% in the next 2-3 years.
From Figure 1, we can clearly find that the hydraulic industry has entered a relatively stable and mature stage, and the industry growth rate has remained at a stable level. The high market growth in 2010 was mainly due to the country's investment of 4 trillion economic stimulus policies, which brought about industry blowouts.
According to the statistics of the import and export situation of the association and customs, China's hydraulic industry has maintained a deficit for many years. With the gradual strengthening of the strength of the hydraulic industry, the hydraulic components and parts and components have basically become self-sufficient. Decreased, China ’s hydraulic industry import value continued to decline, and the hydraulic industry export value continued to rise. By 2015, the hydraulic industry trade deficit had fallen from US $ 2.922 billion in 2011 to US $ 940 million.
According to industry practice expectations, China's hydraulic market sales increased from 35.586 billion yuan in 2008 to 55.9 billion yuan in 2015, a compound growth rate of 6.50%. Affected by China's rapid economic growth, the hydraulic parts industry has developed rapidly during 2006-2011. In 2006, China ’s domestic sales of hydraulic products surpassed Italy and ranked fourth in the world after the United States, Germany, and Japan; in 2007, it surpassed Japan and ranked third after the United States and Germany; in 2008, it surpassed Germany. Ranked second in the world; in 2009, China's domestic sales of hydraulic products surpassed the United States, ranking first in the world. In 2010, the sales volume of China's hydraulic parts industry increased by 34.81%. Since then, due to the slowdown in domestic economic growth, industry sales have fallen by 22.45% in 2013. After 2013, industry sales as a whole remained stable. It can be seen from Figure 2 that after the rapid growth in previous years, the overall industry demand has remained stable.
液压元件及核心零部件的技术发展趋势
液压元件将向高性能、高质量、高可靠性、系统成套方向发展;向低能耗、低噪声、振动、无泄漏以及污染控制、应用水基介质等适应环保要求方向发展;行业将努力开发高集成化、高功率密度、智能化、机电一体化以及轻小型、微型液压元件;积极采用新工艺、新材料和电子、传感等高新技术。纵观行业发展，智能化、节能、绿色、可靠性是未来行业技术发展的主要趋势。
1、智能化
未来机器设备的发展趋势首先是提高安全性、降低劳动强度，因此必然要求作业系统易于操作和人机界面友好，甚至实现自动化无人化;其次是要求提高机器的精密和动态性能，要求运动与动力控制系统具有提高机器的精度;为提高产品服役期内的可靠性和长寿命，减少维修保养时间，降低人员成本，要求系统具有状态监控、故障诊断和智能维护的能力。液压元件行业必须通过提高自身的智能化程度来满足主机装备的要求。液压元件产品全生命周期的智能化技术是未来满足机器设备需求的重要技术发展需求。
2、节能
低碳、节能、减排、环境友好是液压行业可持续发展的战略要求，未来通过结构优化和主动控制方法来提高元件和系统的效率，降低元件和系统的振动、噪声与传动介质的泄露、电子控制取代变量元件中传统的机械和先导控制模式，由软件程序决定功能，增强系统的全局优化匹配能力。
3、绿色
液压元件及零部件在制造过程中的工艺污染、产品的振动噪声、材料损耗、介质泄露等问题一直是我国液压行业面临的重要挑战。未来需要将绿色制造技术应用到产品的设计、工艺、制造、使用和回收利用的全生命周期过程。通过结构优化技术和主动控制原理来降低元件和系统的振动和噪音。行业将逐渐淘汰危害环境的表面处理和加工制造工艺，采用环保型工艺制造方法和设备，如净成形工艺、切削加工优化技术、干式切削技术等，提高制造过程中资源和能源利用率、原材料转化率、减少污染废弃物和污染物的产生和产品制造过程的有毒物质排放;推广环保型介质的应用，开发新型的减少摩擦、降低元件使用损耗的材料和环境友好型材料，提高材料利用率;通过开发管路连接技术，研发新型密封材料，优化密封结构和精加工工艺，提高产品密封性能，减少介质泄露和污染;开发流体介质的回收处理和再利用工艺，发展专用的元件拆解、回收、再制造工艺和生产线，完善再制造元件的性能评估方式，提高产品可回收性和再制造水平。
4、可靠性
我国液压产品长期存在可靠性差、使用寿命低的问题，直接影响到行业整体声誉。很多整机厂商长期不敢用国内液压品牌，终端用户也反对使用，在很长一段时间内导致我国液压产品长期依赖进口。因此可靠性问题是制约行业发展的最主要问题。液压行业的可靠性起步较晚，且大多借鉴机械行业可靠性、电子可靠性等相关领域的研究成果，未能综合考虑自身多场耦合、非线性、复杂震动的特殊性;可靠性与故障预测的实时性不足;没有统一的可靠性研究标准。因此如何建立行之有效的，较为全面的可靠性研究将是未来行业发展的重要技术科学问题。
液压市场竞争格局
1、国际竞争格局
国际液压行业具有明显的市场集中特征，前6~7家主要企业占据了国际液压市场80%~85%的市场份额(资料来源：《液压气动与密封》，2010年PTC专刊)。目前，世界上最主要的液压产品生产企业为德国博世力士乐公司(BoschRexroth)、美国萨奥丹佛斯公司(SAUER-DANFOSS)、日本川崎重工(KAWASAKI)、德国林德液压(LindeHydraulics、美国派克汉尼汾公司(ParkerHannifen)、伊顿威格士(Eaton-Vickers)、日本油研工业株式会社(Yuken)，日本凯迩必公司(KYB)、德国哈威液压有限公司(HAWEHYDRAULIK)、意大利阿托斯公司(ATOS)，在国际液压市场上处于垄断地位。在国际市场，通常液压企业在整装配套和售后市场均会共同开拓市场，国外市场寡头品牌垄断明显，客户对品牌的忠诚度及认可度较高，所以通常耳熟能详的大品牌，在二级市场同样拥有比较高的市场份额比例。
2、我国液压市场竞争格局
2009年我国液压市场销售额已经排在世界第一位，虽然后期因为经济周期性及基础建设回落影响回到第二位，但液压行业整体的技术实力与水平得到了较大幅度地提升，主要表现在：为重大技术装备配套取得突出进展，一大批创新型液压产品进入国家重大技术装备领域，技术创新取得明显成效。
我国本土液压企业呈现企业数量多，规模小，总体竞争力不强的特点。在行业构成上，形成国企、民企、合资、独资“四足鼎立”的局面。其中原有大部分国企已实行改制，在行业所占份额越来越小;民营企业发展势头强劲，已占据行业50%以上的市场;境外企业大量进入，在国内建立合资或独资企业抢占高端液压市场。由于外商独资企业的增加，合资企业所占比例不断下降。
据液气密协会统计，目前国内液压企业超过1000家，其中规模以上企业300多家，主要企业100多家，行业中前4家企业所占市场份额仅为约10%，行业集中度低，绝大多数企业产能较小，拥有高端产品和较高技术能力的企业很少，制约了我国液压行业整体技术水平的提升，也无法满足国内迅猛增长的市场需求。
3. Differences in competition between China's hydraulic aftermarket and complete machine supporting market
At present in the domestic hydraulic market, internationally renowned hydraulic companies have a long history, strong technology, large scale, and strong comprehensive strength. Their competitive advantages and competitive position are difficult to be shaken in the short term, and they belong to the first echelon of the hydraulic market. The first echelon enterprises have strong strength and brand recognition in the complete machine supporting market and the hydraulic aftermarket. The more representative brands are Dr. Rexroth, Parker Hannifin, and KYB. Usually, the first echelon companies have foreign-funded enterprises in China.
Companies in the second echelon usually differ in the nature of the complete machine market and aftermarket, and the companies participating in the competition are also quite different. Generally, the complete machine supporting enterprises are less involved in the after-market competition. Similarly, the major companies in the hydraulic after-market also focus on channels and product development, and will not spend much effort with the complete machine supporting enterprises to compete for the complete machine market resources. Therefore, the second-tier enterprises can be roughly divided into two categories: complete machine supporting and hydraulic aftermarket enterprises.
The echelon companies have gradually increased their capital and technology investment in different segments, and gradually established their own competitive advantages. In their respective segments, they have relatively mature host supporting capabilities, stable customer base, and certain technology reserves. The gap with the first echelon of internationally renowned hydraulic enterprises is gradually narrowing. With the guidance of relevant national policies and the promotion of market demand, it is expected that the industry concentration will gradually increase in the future. Hydraulic companies with strong technical strength and excellent management capabilities will gain opportunities for industry integration and become bigger and stronger. At the same time as the overall technological level of the industry is improved, the current shortage of domestic high-end products is alleviated. Although domestic hydraulic parts companies still have shortcomings compared with foreign companies in terms of overall strength, some hydraulic parts companies have continued to strengthen the building of talent teams and improve the level of technology and processes after the development process of "introduction, absorption, and innovation". The segmentation of hydraulic parts has reached the international advanced level, and the local competitive advantage is becoming increasingly prominent. It gradually has the ability to replace imported products, which has laid a good foundation for further expanding domestic and foreign markets.
Construction machinery industry
The construction machinery industry is the largest downstream application industry of hydraulic products in China. About 35% of domestic hydraulic products are used in the field of construction machinery. In recent years, the growth rate of the construction machinery industry has slowed down relatively. The future growth point is in high-end and intelligent products. The demand for high-end hydraulic components will accelerate. The construction machinery industry is one of the important weathervanes for global macroeconomic operations. In the 10 years before 2011, China witnessed a climax of infrastructure construction. As a result, the construction machinery industry experienced a "golden decade", the industrial scale developed rapidly, the product technology innovation capability increased significantly, and its international status and influence increased year by year. According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in 2012 China's construction machinery sales reached 562.6 billion yuan, becoming the world's largest construction machinery market.
The biggest downstream of construction machinery is infrastructure and real estate investment. With the strengthening of real estate market regulation and control, from the second half of 2011, the construction machinery market has gradually fallen into a downturn. It can be found from the figure below that China's construction machinery industry has entered a slow decline since it reached its peak in 2011, but the overall scale of the industry still remains above 500 billion yuan. In 2016, the sales of 9 major products totaled 544,600 units, an increase of 10.2% year-on-year. Except for the year-on-year decline in the sales of loaders and truck-mounted cranes, the other seven major construction machinery products achieved growth. Among them, graders, excavators, road rollers, industrial vehicles, bulldozers and other five major categories of products showed double-digit growth, and sales of graders and excavators increased by about 20%. In 2016, the industry's cumulative sales volume of 70320 excavators increased by 24.8% year-on-year, and the monthly sales growth continued to accelerate since the second half of 2016, of which, December saw a significant increase of 75.0% year-on-year. It can be seen that in 2016, China's construction machinery industry has completed the construction of the bottom, and has successfully picked up its growth channel.
During the period of 2011-2015, problems such as homogenization of domestic enterprises, excess production capacity of low-end products, and weak international competitiveness of high-end products have gradually emerged. The main reason is that key technologies are controlled by foreign companies. Transmission components, control components, High-tech, high-value-added core components such as diesel engines and key hydraulic components also rely on imports. To continuously improve the competitiveness of its own industry. During this period, China's construction machinery industry began the transition from "winning in scale" to "winning in quality". With the stability of the overall market and the continuous enhancement of the company's technical strength, it is expected that the construction machinery will enter a stable growth period in the future, high-end and intelligent will become a new growth point for the construction machinery, and the demand for high-end hydraulic components will accelerate .
China's hydraulic components and core parts market size
2.Hydraulic motor
From the point of view of added value, hydraulic motors do not account for a large proportion in the entire hydraulic industry, but they are indispensable and important components in the entire hydraulic system. The innovation and development of hydraulic systems, especially in terms of mechatronics, hydraulic motors and their Accessories will assume more functions in the future. Figure 5 shows the domestic output data of hydraulic motors.
The reducer associated with the hydraulic components does not have much difference in structural design principle compared with the traditional reducer. It is mainly matched with the hydraulic motor to form an assembly. The gear speed converter is used to reduce the number of revolutions of the motor to the required. The number of revolutions and get a larger torque. The reducer is widely used in the entire industrial field, especially in the field of robots, which has received great attention from the society. According to the data from the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the sales revenue of China's reducer industry from 2010 to 2013 is divided into 45.6 billion yuan, 60 billion yuan, 64.4 billion yuan, and 80 billion yuan. yuan.
The application of lifting machinery transportation equipment as a branch of the reducer also has a very important status. It has high technical requirements in terms of pressure tolerance, working time, and adaptation to complex working conditions, especially in the field of construction machinery. Under the technical background of increasingly high control requirements and the in-depth integration of electro-hydraulic technology, higher requirements have been placed on the quality and stability of the reducer. Lifting and transporting equipment accounts for 24.76% of the output of the reducer, which is one of the largest application areas of the reducer, which includes the application of construction machinery. Because the proportion of reduction gear used by construction machinery in the entire transportation equipment is not high, it is estimated that the proportion of reduction gear used in construction machinery to the total reduction gear is about 1% to 2% based on the output value. The reduction gear is usually used with a motor Based on this, it is estimated that the market capacity of China's construction machinery and crane reducers is about 1 billion yuan.
China's hydraulic components and core parts market size
The hydraulic aftermarket, as an important part of the hydraulic industry, has been rising with the development of the Chinese hydraulic industry. The early stage of China's hydraulic industry was based on overseas imported hydraulic products. The early hydraulic parts factories were mainly responsible for repairing and maintaining imported hydraulic parts. Therefore, most of the well-known domestic hydraulic parts factories have relevant experience in the hydraulic aftermarket.
With the gradual growth of China's economy, the increase in the manufacturing capacity and scale of complete machine factories, and the high cost of hydraulic parts and components overseas, and the inefficiency of determining delivery times, China's hydraulic parts companies have followed the market closely. The market covers the complete set. However, the market after hydraulic parts is still a market that the development of hydraulic parts companies must pass, and the market after hydraulic parts is relatively stable, and will not follow the ups and downs of the whole machine manufacturing, which is mainly related to the economic cycle and the holding amount of the whole machine.
At present, construction machinery is an important downstream application of the hydraulic industry, and 44% of sales in the hydraulic industry are for construction machinery. The hydraulic aftermarket of construction machinery is larger than other hydraulic aftermarkets and has an independent system. Therefore, we focus on data analysis of the hydraulic aftermarket of construction machinery.
According to incomplete statistics from the China Construction Machinery Association, the number of construction machinery in China has reached 6.72 million to 7.28 million by the end of 2016. The number of construction machinery is several times the size of new equipment added each year and the market is relatively stable. According to industry statistics During the period of 2008-2016, the construction machinery holdings continued to grow, and there was no decline in the holdings.
After the working hours of construction machinery reaches a certain hour, maintenance and parts replacement are usually performed, and certain hydraulic parts replacement requirements will also be generated. Therefore, the continuous use and start of construction machinery will bring new demand in the hydraulic market. Because the overall operating rate of the downstream infrastructure construction industry varies greatly from year to year, and the prosperity index of construction machinery varies, the annual growth rate of hydraulic demand in the construction machinery market in China varies greatly.
According to the characteristics of the use of construction machinery, usually only a small amount of maintenance is required within 3 years after the purchase of the new complete machine, and the maintenance cost is low. After the service life of the whole machine reaches 3 years, repair and maintenance, especially the maintenance of hydraulic parts, has become the normal state of construction machinery. The cost of maintenance of various hydraulic components varies according to different brands and industrial and mining conditions, but usually it will be overhauled every 3 to 4 years. Overhaul will arrange replacement of many hydraulic components. In the 10-year service life of construction machinery, the maintenance and replacement of hydraulic parts is roughly equivalent to resetting the entire set of hydraulic system components. Considering the high cost of foreign brand hydraulic parts, construction machinery owners usually try to choose domestic Brand hydraulic parts.
According to the overall sales of the hydraulic industry and the proportion of downstream applications in the hydraulic industry, we can get the annual market demand for hydraulic parts in the construction machinery industry, which has reached 25.439 billion yuan in 2016.
According to the industry's average hydraulic overhaul once every 3 to 4 years, and the replacement of two sets of hydraulic systems in the 10-year life cycle, the brand value of the aftermarket hydraulic components is not as good as the brand of the package market. Considering the differences between the market and package prices, labor costs and indirect costs Among other factors, we expect the industry's average maintenance and overhaul costs within 4 years to be equivalent to 100% of the initial annual sales cost of the hydraulic component assembly. According to the principle that the longer the life of the whole machine, the higher the corresponding maintenance cost, we share the annual maintenance cost. Generally, the maintenance cost accounts for about 5% of the original cost within 1 to 3 years, and the maintenance cost accounts for about 4 to 7 years. 40%, 8 to 10 years of maintenance costs account for about 55% of the overall cost, after 8 years, the maintenance cost of hydraulic systems will reach a peak.
The above assumptions are based on the fact that the construction machinery has been in stable use for 10 years, which is a long-term shutdown or non-startup. Based on the above ratio, we can theoretically post market demand for construction machinery.
Considering the use of construction machinery in China is positively related to the degree of economic prosperity. China's construction machinery construction is often inseparable from China's fixed investment in social assets, infrastructure investment and real estate market development. Komatsu's construction machinery has a good coverage and market share in China. Komatsu has been counting the operating hours of its equipment sold in China since 2011. This data is consistently regarded as the authority in the industry and is used to represent the monthly use of construction machinery in the country. We expect the start-up hours in 2018 to increase by another 5% over 2017.
Assume that the construction machinery is used for 8 hours a day. According to the estimation of 22 working days per month, the working time is 2112 hours per year. If the device has not been used for this time, it will not reach full capacity. We use the operating hours of Komatsu equipment as a reference to reflect the overall start of the industry. The compliance rate of construction machinery for each year can be calculated.
According to the principle of longer working hours, higher working compliance, and higher equipment maintenance costs, we reduced the theoretical maintenance demand of the construction machinery hydraulic market to the actual hydraulic market demand.
Hydraulic products have different requirements on the aftermarket according to their use and industrial and mining conditions. Generally speaking, because the working environment of construction machinery is relatively harsh, it needs to be replaced more often, and in the fields of automobiles, machine tools and metallurgical equipment, because the working environment is relatively stable, the frequency of corresponding replacement and maintenance will not be too high. We expect agricultural machinery, metallurgy, mining and other industries. We expect that hydraulic components will be used for a longer time, which usually takes about 6-8 years to complete the entire replacement and maintenance of hydraulic components, and the replacement cost is lower. Automotive, aerospace and other industries have a long service life, and replacement frequency will be lower. We calculate the after-sale market demand in different industries according to the proportion of maintenance frequency in different fields, and finally calculate the market size of the final hydraulic after-market as shown in Figure 9.
According to the output ratio of various types of products in the hydraulic industry of the hydraulic industry from 2010 to 2015, the replacement of hydraulic parts in the hydraulic aftermarket is directly proportional to the use of original hydraulic parts. In this way, the corresponding market proportion of each hydraulic product can be obtained.
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